The warning came from Maximo Torero, chief economist at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, and Reuters carried it: pressure on global food markets could build in late 2026 and early 2027 and persist through all of 2027. Stockpiles and good harvests have cushioned the last few shocks, he said, and that cushion is already wearing thin.
War and Shipping Disruptions
At its heart, this is a story about supply routes under attack. Reuters reported that strikes on grain infrastructure around the Black Sea are complicating wheat shipments. Threats to shipping in the Red Sea push some vessels onto longer routes around Africa, and on certain key international routes freight costs have risen by about 50%.
Then there is the war between the U.S. and Israel against Iran. It has pushed up fuel prices and disrupted fertilizer exports through the Strait of Hormuz. For farmers, that means higher costs to grow, harvest and deliver a crop, and energy sits deep in every one of those steps.
Weather and a Shrinking Buffer
The weather adds a second thread. El Niño could worsen droughts in India and Southeast Asia, where grain and other crops are sensitive to swings in rainfall and temperature.
The numbers already show strain. By the agency’s estimates, global wheat prices rose more than 30% in 2026. Rice in the key Asian exporting countries is up 10 to 13%, even though stockpiles remain substantial. Large grain stocks and good harvests once softened such shocks. That buffer is shrinking, and major importers who put off purchases after strong local harvests may now return to the market, adding demand just as supply tightens.
What Consumers Will Feel
For those involved, from food manufacturers to families at the till, the effects are arriving in stages. Rising raw material costs are already hitting producers, who are renewing ingredient contracts at higher prices. Energy, logistics and labor costs may then feed into shelf prices. Reuters did not offer a forecast of how far prices could climb, and not every product will rise equally.
Ukraine offers a close-up. According to the State Statistics Service, consumer prices rose 2.1% in September from August, with annual inflation at 10%. Food and non-alcoholic drinks climbed 1.9% on the month and 8.9% on the year. Eggs rose most, while fruit and vegetables got cheaper. Staples moved in different directions: at the end of September, the Ministry of Finance put the average price of buckwheat at 80.95 UAH per kilogram and parboiled rice at 61.37 UAH, while millet fell to 56.20 UAH.
What happens next depends on how long transport disruption lasts, how the weather treats the big producing countries, and whether new harvests can make up for depleted stocks. In Ukraine, fuel, electricity and fertilizer costs for producers will matter as much as the global grain and oilseed markets.
Sources
- Global food prices could rise by the end of 2027 — Reuters
- Food prices
- Graphic: How grocery prices have changed since Trump took office
Photo: kallerna (CC BY-SA 4.0)
