MADRID, September 18 — Global international tourist arrivals grew just 0.4% in the first half of 2026, according to the latest World Tourism Barometer published by UN Tourism on 17 September. An estimated 690 million tourists travelled internationally between January and June, some 3 million more than in the same period of 2025. The headline number hides a sharp reversal in momentum.
Global arrivals rose 2% in the first quarter of 2026, then fell 1% in the second quarter, including a 3% decline in April. UN Tourism attributed the April drop largely to the calendar effect of the Easter holiday period starting in March, together with the impacts of the Middle East conflict.
Arrivals fell a further 3% globally in June.
Asia and Europe take the hit
Western Europe recorded a 6% decline in June, partly due to a heatwave in some destinations. South-East Asia saw 5% fewer arrivals in June, driven by weaker demand from Asian markets, geopolitical tensions, air travel disruptions through the Middle East and increased travel costs. Some destinations in Oceania also fell 6% in June, impacted by Typhoon Sinlaku during the second quarter.
The Middle East conflict has negatively affected international tourism in the Middle East and other regions since early March 2026, according to UN Tourism. Disruptions to air traffic gradually eased in May and June following the announcement of a ceasefire, resulting in the reopening of some air routes and an uneven rebound in consumer sentiment, the agency said.
Forecast cut as volatility bites
In view of the latest data and current geopolitical volatility, international tourist arrivals are now expected to grow by between 1% and 2% globally in 2026, down from UN Tourism’s January forecast of 3% to 4%. That outlook depends on the conflict’s actual duration and its effect on oil prices and overall inflation. International travellers are also expected to continue seeking value for money and travelling closer to home or domestically in response to elevated prices and uncertainty.
UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais said: “The latest data shows a sector absorbing real pressure and finding a way forward. Tourism has not stopped growing, but that growth is fragile.
The Middle East situation has touched destinations far beyond the region itself and serves as a clear reminder that, in such a connected world, resilience needs to be built everywhere and not just when a crisis begins.” UN Tourism works with 160 Member States, 6 Associate Members and over 500 Affiliate Members to position tourism as a key driver of economic growth, inclusive development and environmental sustainability.
